What Economic Effects Do Travel Bans Have on the United States Economy?
Today, for example, we're hearing that the Trump administration is increasing its restrictions on travel from Europe to include Ireland and the United Kingdom now. And at today's White House briefing, President Trump said he's considering restrictions on domestic travel as well - two additional steps intended to help slow down the spread of the coronavirus but which could also come with a big price tag for the U.S. economy.
All else being equal, a disease that kills only the elderly or infirm can even have the perverse effect of raising the GDP per capita, provided that those at the most productive ages survive. But there are fewer people in total to share the wealth. How the economic impact will unfold to a large extent is decided by the nature and the trajectory of COVID-19 if it becomes a pandemic, which seems increasingly likely.
However, mathematical models can be used to predict the effectiveness of each type of intervention and inform policy-makers at national and international levels. In 2009, a systematic review of studies based on such models revealed limited evidence of the effectiveness of restrictions in air travel – within and between countries – in the containment of pandemic influenza (International Health Regulations, 2005).
Financial markets—and the global economy—recover after a V-shaped recession.
WHO interim protocol: rapid operations to contain the initial emergence of pandemic influenza. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2007.
Pandemic influenza preparedness and response – a WHO guidance document. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2009.
International Health Regulations (2005). Geneva: World Health Organization; 2008.